May 21, 2021
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Damir Ismagulov | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 103 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Damir Ismagulov's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Damir Ismagulov for the expected result. Had Rafael Alves pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Damir Ismagulov | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 077 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Damir Ismagulov | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 143 | 971 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Damir Ismagulov earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Damir Ismagulov | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 56 | 30 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 126 | 63 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 141 | 36 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 166 | 970 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Damir Ismagulov dominated the striking exchanges with 141 vs 36 total strikes, 56 vs 30 significant strikes. Damir Ismagulov capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Damir Ismagulov | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:40 | 0:16 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 19 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 206 | 954 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -46 |
Damir Ismagulov controlled Rafael Alves on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 7:40 of control time, 19 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Damir Ismagulov | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 630 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 116 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -15 |
Damir Ismagulov demonstrated extended layoff with 630 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Damir Ismagulov capitalized on this activity level, while Rafael Alves's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Damir Ismagulov | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 094 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -17 |
Damir Ismagulov extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafael Alves is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Damir Ismagulov | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 077 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.