January 30, 2009
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dan Cramer | Matt Arroyo |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 058 | 894 |
| ELO Change | +58 | -58 |
Dan Cramer overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 3 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Matt Arroyo.
| Metric | Dan Cramer | Matt Arroyo |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dan Cramer | Matt Arroyo |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 011 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Dan Cramer receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Dan Cramer | Matt Arroyo |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 24 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 68 | 25 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 38 | 148 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 025 | 952 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Matt Arroyo controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (148 vs 38 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (16 vs 24), superior accuracy (64.0% vs 35.3%). However, since Matt Arroyo lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Dan Cramer's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Dan Cramer | Matt Arroyo |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 10:53 | 2:25 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 22 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 1 051 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -51 |
Dan Cramer edged out Matt Arroyo on the ground with 0 takedowns, 10:53 of control time, 22 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Cramer | Matt Arroyo |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 225 |
| Activity ELO | 1 021 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Dan Cramer demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Dan Cramer capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Arroyo's 225-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Cramer | Matt Arroyo |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 023 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Dan Cramer started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Arroyo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dan Cramer | Matt Arroyo |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

