May 25, 2012
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dan Hardy | Duane Ludwig |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 100 | 997 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (9 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Dan Hardy | Duane Ludwig |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 041 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dan Hardy | Duane Ludwig |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:51 | 3:51 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 196 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | +89 | -41 |
Dan Hardy earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:51, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Dan Hardy | Duane Ludwig |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 18 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 29 | 38 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 19 | 17 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 109 | 952 |
| ELO Change | +94 | -94 |
Dan Hardy controlled the striking exchanges with 62.1% vs 44.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Dan Hardy capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dan Hardy | Duane Ludwig |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:28 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 038 | 949 |
| ELO Change | +61 | -61 |
Dan Hardy landed 1 knockdown followed by 4 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Dan Hardy | Duane Ludwig |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 286 | 127 |
| Activity ELO | 1 136 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Dan Hardy demonstrated standard activity with 286 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Dan Hardy capitalized on this activity level, while Duane Ludwig's 127-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Hardy | Duane Ludwig |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 067 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Dan Hardy started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Duane Ludwig is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dan Hardy | Duane Ludwig |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 035 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.