June 12, 2009
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dan Hardy | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 165 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | +59 | -39 |
Dan Hardy overcame a 8-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 11 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Marcus Davis.
| Metric | Dan Hardy | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 068 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dan Hardy | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 155 | 1 306 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Dan Hardy receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Dan Hardy | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 28 | 19 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 61 | 41 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 73 | 104 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 235 | 1 226 |
| ELO Change | +82 | -82 |
Dan Hardy controlled the striking exchanges with 73 vs 104 total strikes, 28 vs 19 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Dan Hardy capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dan Hardy | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:26 | 6:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 125 | 1 260 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Dan Hardy landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Dan Hardy | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 1 144 | 1 230 |
| ELO Change | +80 | -32 |
Dan Hardy demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Dan Hardy capitalized on this activity level, while Marcus Davis's 147-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Hardy | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 086 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -28 |
Dan Hardy extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marcus Davis is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dan Hardy | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 068 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.