February 20, 2009
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dan Hardy | Rory Markham |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 106 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -17 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Dan Hardy | Rory Markham |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 043 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dan Hardy | Rory Markham |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:09 | 1:09 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 139 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | +126 | -52 |
Dan Hardy earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:09, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Dan Hardy | Rory Markham |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 12 | 7 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 5 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 153 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +127 | -127 |
Dan Hardy controlled the striking exchanges with 41.7% vs 28.6% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Dan Hardy capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dan Hardy | Rory Markham |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 080 | 970 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -51 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Dan Hardy | Rory Markham |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 127 | 218 |
| Activity ELO | 1 064 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -21 |
Dan Hardy demonstrated solid activity levels with 127 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Dan Hardy capitalized on this activity level, while Rory Markham's 218-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Hardy | Rory Markham |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 050 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
Dan Hardy extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rory Markham is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dan Hardy | Rory Markham |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 043 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.