January 23, 2015
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Gegard Mousasi |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 9 | -9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 104 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +60 |
Gegard Mousasi overcame a 9-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 14 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Dan Henderson.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Gegard Mousasi |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 071 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Gegard Mousasi |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:10 | 1:10 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 266 | 1 285 |
| ELO Change | -63 | +152 |
Gegard Mousasi earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:10, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Gegard Mousasi |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 11 | 22 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 4 | 5 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 124 | 1 243 |
| ELO Change | -113 | +113 |
Gegard Mousasi controlled the striking exchanges with 18.2% vs 36.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Gegard Mousasi capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Gegard Mousasi |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 961 | 1 118 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Gegard Mousasi |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 246 | 142 |
| Activity ELO | 1 230 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +62 |
Gegard Mousasi demonstrated solid activity levels with 142 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Gegard Mousasi capitalized on this activity level, while Dan Henderson's 246-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Gegard Mousasi |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 066 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +27 |
Gegard Mousasi started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dan Henderson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Gegard Mousasi |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 026 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.