June 3, 2016
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Hector Lombard |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 9 | -9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 151 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Dan Henderson's 9-fight experience advantage (17 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dan Henderson for the expected result. Had Hector Lombard pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Hector Lombard |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 095 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Hector Lombard |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:27 | 1:27 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 422 | 1 245 |
| ELO Change | +68 | -33 |
Dan Henderson gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Hector Lombard |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 31 | 41 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 23 | 45 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 324 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | +84 | -84 |
Hector Lombard controlled the striking through superior volume (45 vs 23 total strikes), significant strike advantage (23 vs 13), superior accuracy (56.1% vs 41.9%), 1 knockdown. However, since Hector Lombard lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Dan Henderson's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Hector Lombard |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 2:16 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 042 | 1 204 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Dan Henderson landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Hector Lombard |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 210 | 77 |
| Activity ELO | 1 271 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -14 |
Dan Henderson demonstrated standard activity with 210 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Dan Henderson capitalized on this activity level, while Hector Lombard's 77-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Hector Lombard |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 097 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Dan Henderson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Hector Lombard is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Hector Lombard |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 055 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.