February 22, 2013
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 182 | 1 297 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Lyoto Machida's 5-fight experience advantage (14 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Lyoto Machida for the expected result. Had Dan Henderson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 132 | 1 231 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 301 | 1 518 |
| ELO Change | -5 | +5 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Lyoto Machida receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 27 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 64 | 54 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 54 | 28 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 350 | 1 535 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
Dan Henderson controlled the striking through superior volume (54 vs 28 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (20 vs 27), superior accuracy (31.3% vs 50.0%). However, since Dan Henderson lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Lyoto Machida's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:53 | 0:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 288 | 1 424 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Lyoto Machida edged out Dan Henderson on the ground with 1 takedown, 4 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 462 | 204 |
| Activity ELO | 1 289 | 1 349 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +25 |
Lyoto Machida demonstrated standard activity with 204 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Lyoto Machida capitalized on this activity level, while Dan Henderson's 462-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 122 | 1 262 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +18 |
Lyoto Machida extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dan Henderson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 082 | 1 159 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.