March 22, 2014
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 170 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -35 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (12 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 121 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:31 | 1:31 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 391 | 1 348 |
| ELO Change | +113 | -57 |
Dan Henderson gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 23 | 48 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 60 | 96 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 32 | 79 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 1 350 | 1 273 |
| ELO Change | +122 | -122 |
Mauricio Rua controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (79 vs 32 total strikes), significant strike advantage (48 vs 23), superior accuracy (50.0% vs 38.3%), 2 knockdowns. However, since Mauricio Rua lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Dan Henderson's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:08 | 3:25 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 13 |
| Ground ELO | 1 242 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Dan Henderson landed 1 knockdown followed by 4 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 134 | 107 |
| Activity ELO | 1 292 | 1 184 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -18 |
Dan Henderson demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Dan Henderson capitalized on this activity level, while Mauricio Rua's 107-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 114 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Dan Henderson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mauricio Rua is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 070 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.