June 14, 2013
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 158 | 1 289 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Rashad Evans's 7-fight experience advantage (17 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rashad Evans for the expected result. Had Dan Henderson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 116 | 1 229 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 294 | 1 444 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +7 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Rashad Evans receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 40 | 39 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 91 | 87 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 53 | 66 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 328 | 1 405 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Rashad Evans slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Rashad Evans capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:01 | 3:42 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 273 | 1 480 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Rashad Evans did not secure a significant ground advantage against Dan Henderson on the ground with 3:42 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 271 | 1 371 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +37 |
Rashad Evans demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rashad Evans capitalized on this activity level, while Dan Henderson's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 107 | 1 233 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +17 |
Rashad Evans started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dan Henderson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 065 | 1 173 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.