September 5, 2008
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 061 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Dan Henderson's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dan Henderson for the expected result. Had Rousimar Palhares pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 075 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 083 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -49 |
Dan Henderson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 42 | 27 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 82 | 63 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 49 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 116 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +64 | -64 |
Dan Henderson controlled the striking exchanges with 49 vs 29 total strikes, 42 vs 27 significant strikes, 51.2% vs 42.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Dan Henderson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 16 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:27 | 1:28 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 14 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 126 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +58 | -58 |
Dan Henderson landed 1 knockdown followed by 14 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 189 | 105 |
| Activity ELO | 1 201 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -12 |
Dan Henderson demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Dan Henderson capitalized on this activity level, while Rousimar Palhares's 105-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 039 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Dan Henderson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rousimar Palhares is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 029 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.