November 6, 2015
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Vitor Belfort |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 21 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 118 | 1 261 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Vitor Belfort's 5-fight experience advantage (21 vs 16 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Vitor Belfort for the expected result. Had Dan Henderson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Vitor Belfort |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 077 | 1 224 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Vitor Belfort |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:07 | 2:07 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 354 | 1 606 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +49 |
Vitor Belfort earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:07, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Vitor Belfort |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 3 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 3 | 6 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 240 | 1 582 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Vitor Belfort controlled the striking exchanges with 54.5% vs 100.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Vitor Belfort capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Vitor Belfort |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 009 | 1 345 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Vitor Belfort |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 155 | 169 |
| Activity ELO | 1 254 | 1 396 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +26 |
Vitor Belfort demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Vitor Belfort capitalized on this activity level, while Dan Henderson's 155-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Vitor Belfort |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 075 | 1 210 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +16 |
Vitor Belfort started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dan Henderson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dan Henderson | Vitor Belfort |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 034 | 1 158 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.