June 26, 2020
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dan Hooker | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 24 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 242 | 1 351 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Dustin Poirier's 9-fight experience advantage (24 vs 15 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dustin Poirier for the expected result. Had Dan Hooker pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dan Hooker | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 116 | 1 227 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dan Hooker | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 455 | 1 586 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Dustin Poirier earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Dan Hooker | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 155 | 153 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 253 | 231 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 182 | 208 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 416 | 1 483 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Dustin Poirier edged the striking exchanges with 208 vs 182 total strikes. Dustin Poirier capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dan Hooker | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:02 | 2:49 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 17 |
| Ground ELO | 1 273 | 1 350 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Dustin Poirier slightly outworked Dan Hooker on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:49 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning modest grappling bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Hooker | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 294 |
| Activity ELO | 1 339 | 1 403 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Dustin Poirier demonstrated standard activity with 294 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Dustin Poirier capitalized on this activity level, while Dan Hooker's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Hooker | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 166 | 1 296 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +17 |
Dustin Poirier started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dan Hooker is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dan Hooker | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 115 | 1 210 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.