December 14, 2018
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dan Hooker | Edson Barboza |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 20 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 159 | 1 231 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Edson Barboza's 9-fight experience advantage (20 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Edson Barboza for the expected result. Had Dan Hooker pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dan Hooker | Edson Barboza |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 066 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dan Hooker | Edson Barboza |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:19 | 2:19 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 358 | 1 461 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +93 |
Edson Barboza gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Hooker | Edson Barboza |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 81 | 126 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 204 | 226 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 111 | 127 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 260 | 1 395 |
| ELO Change | -117 | +117 |
Edson Barboza controlled the striking exchanges with 126 vs 81 significant strikes, 55.8% vs 39.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Edson Barboza capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dan Hooker | Edson Barboza |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:05 | 1:43 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 138 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Edson Barboza did not secure a significant ground advantage against Dan Hooker on the ground with 1:43 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Dan Hooker | Edson Barboza |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 162 | 239 |
| Activity ELO | 1 209 | 1 316 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +21 |
Edson Barboza demonstrated standard activity with 239 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Edson Barboza capitalized on this activity level, while Dan Hooker's 162-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Hooker | Edson Barboza |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 099 | 1 182 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Edson Barboza started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dan Hooker is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dan Hooker | Edson Barboza |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 066 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

