February 6, 2009
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dan Miller | Jake Rosholt |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 124 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Dan Miller's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dan Miller for the expected result. Had Jake Rosholt pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Jake Rosholt |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 060 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Jake Rosholt |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:03 | 1:03 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 177 | 972 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -28 |
Dan Miller earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:03, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Jake Rosholt |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 6 | 4 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 4 | 5 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 105 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Jake Rosholt controlled the striking through superior accuracy (50.0% vs 33.3%). However, since Jake Rosholt lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Dan Miller's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Jake Rosholt |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:22 | 0:26 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 154 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Dan Miller edged out Jake Rosholt on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:22 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Jake Rosholt |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 106 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 155 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -14 |
Dan Miller demonstrated solid activity levels with 106 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Dan Miller capitalized on this activity level, while Jake Rosholt's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Jake Rosholt |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 072 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -18 |
Dan Miller extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jake Rosholt is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Jake Rosholt |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 060 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

