October 24, 2008
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dan Miller | Matt Horwich |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 101 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Matt Horwich |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 042 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Matt Horwich |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 125 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Dan Miller earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Matt Horwich |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 31 | 15 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 49 | 24 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 142 | 62 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 089 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Dan Miller dominated the striking exchanges with 142 vs 62 total strikes, 31 vs 15 significant strikes. Dan Miller capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Matt Horwich |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 10:27 | 3:42 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 19 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 127 | 926 |
| ELO Change | +74 | -74 |
Dan Miller dominated Matt Horwich on the ground with 6 vs 0 takedowns, 10:27 of control time, 19 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Matt Horwich |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 38 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 120 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +98 | -20 |
Dan Miller demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 38 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Dan Miller capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Horwich's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Matt Horwich |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 048 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -19 |
Dan Miller extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Horwich is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Matt Horwich |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 042 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

