Dan Miller vs Nate Marquardt

March 18, 2011

Middleweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1061
(-21)
Dan Miller
Winner: Nate Marquardt
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Dan Miller-21
Nate Marquardt+24
1243
(+24)
Nate Marquardt

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Dan Miller: -24Nate Marquardt: +24

Performance Statistics

MetricDan MillerNate Marquardt
Total UFC Fights914
Experience Gap-55
Experience ELO1 0591 190
ELO Change-24+24
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What Happened

Nate Marquardt's 5-fight experience advantage (14 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nate Marquardt for the expected result. Had Dan Miller pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Dan Miller: -17Nate Marquardt: +17

Performance Statistics

MetricDan MillerNate Marquardt
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0191 113
ELO Change-17+17
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Dan Miller: -15Nate Marquardt: +15

Performance Statistics

MetricDan MillerNate Marquardt
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 1311 433
ELO Change-15+15
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What Happened

Nate Marquardt earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Dan Miller: -11Nate Marquardt: +11

Performance Statistics

MetricDan MillerNate Marquardt
Significant Strikes Landed1047
Significant Strikes Attempted3878
Total Strikes Landed3675
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 0141 403
ELO Change-11+11
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What Happened

Nate Marquardt controlled the striking exchanges with 75 vs 36 total strikes, 47 vs 10 significant strikes, 60.3% vs 26.3% accuracy. Nate Marquardt capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Dan Miller: -51Nate Marquardt: +51

Performance Statistics

MetricDan MillerNate Marquardt
Takedowns Landed23
Takedowns Attempted63
Ground Control Time1:597:18
Ground Strikes Landed020
Ground ELO1 0541 298
ELO Change-51+51
💡

What Happened

Nate Marquardt controlled Dan Miller on the ground with 3 vs 2 takedowns, 7:18 of control time, 20 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Dan Miller: -18Nate Marquardt: +36

Performance Statistics

MetricDan MillerNate Marquardt
Days Since Last Fight98126
Activity ELO1 1521 252
ELO Change-18+36
💡

What Happened

Nate Marquardt demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Nate Marquardt capitalized on this activity level, while Dan Miller's 98-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Dan Miller: -17Nate Marquardt: +18

Performance Statistics

MetricDan MillerNate Marquardt
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO1 0371 143
ELO Change-17+18
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What Happened

Nate Marquardt started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dan Miller is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Dan Miller: -18Nate Marquardt: +18

Performance Statistics

MetricDan MillerNate Marquardt
Weight ClassMiddleweightMiddleweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0181 111
ELO Change-18+18
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.