March 18, 2011
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dan Miller | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 059 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Nate Marquardt's 5-fight experience advantage (14 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nate Marquardt for the expected result. Had Dan Miller pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 019 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 131 | 1 433 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Nate Marquardt earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 47 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 38 | 78 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 36 | 75 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 014 | 1 403 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
Nate Marquardt controlled the striking exchanges with 75 vs 36 total strikes, 47 vs 10 significant strikes, 60.3% vs 26.3% accuracy. Nate Marquardt capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:59 | 7:18 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 20 |
| Ground ELO | 1 054 | 1 298 |
| ELO Change | -51 | +51 |
Nate Marquardt controlled Dan Miller on the ground with 3 vs 2 takedowns, 7:18 of control time, 20 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 98 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 1 152 | 1 252 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +36 |
Nate Marquardt demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Nate Marquardt capitalized on this activity level, while Dan Miller's 98-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 037 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +18 |
Nate Marquardt started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dan Miller is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 018 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

