July 11, 2015
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dan Miller | Trevor Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 928 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +40 |
Trevor Smith overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (6 vs 13 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Dan Miller.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Trevor Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 976 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Trevor Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 029 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Trevor Smith earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Trevor Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 51 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 59 | 76 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 29 | 149 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 835 | 973 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Trevor Smith dominated the striking exchanges with 149 vs 29 total strikes, 51 vs 25 significant strikes, 67.1% vs 42.4% accuracy. Trevor Smith capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Trevor Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:05 | 11:56 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 27 |
| Ground ELO | 938 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | -67 | +67 |
Trevor Smith controlled Dan Miller on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 11:56 of control time, 27 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Trevor Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 848 | 246 |
| Activity ELO | 1 088 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +31 |
Trevor Smith demonstrated standard activity with 246 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Trevor Smith capitalized on this activity level, while Dan Miller's 848-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Trevor Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 992 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Trevor Smith started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dan Miller is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dan Miller | Trevor Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 975 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.