April 13, 2018
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dan Moret | Gilbert Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 976 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Gilbert Burns's 7-fight experience advantage (8 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gilbert Burns for the expected result. Had Dan Moret pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dan Moret | Gilbert Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 982 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dan Moret | Gilbert Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:59 | 0:59 |
| Win Type ELO | 979 | 1 234 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +43 |
Gilbert Burns gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Moret | Gilbert Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 31 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 58 | 65 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 20 | 39 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 935 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | -65 | +65 |
Gilbert Burns controlled the striking exchanges with 31 vs 20 significant strikes, 47.7% vs 34.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Gilbert Burns capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dan Moret | Gilbert Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 1:24 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 964 | 1 213 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Gilbert Burns landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Dan Moret | Gilbert Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 210 |
| Activity ELO | 985 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +19 |
Gilbert Burns demonstrated standard activity with 210 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Gilbert Burns capitalized on this activity level, while Dan Moret's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Moret | Gilbert Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 983 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +20 |
Gilbert Burns extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dan Moret is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dan Moret | Gilbert Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 982 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

