Dan Severn vs Joe Charles

April 6, 1995

Open Weight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1115
(+38)
Dan Severn
Winner: Dan Severn
Submission
Round 1 • 1:38

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Dan Severn+38
Joe Charles-33
967
(-33)
Joe Charles

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Dan Severn: +28Joe Charles: -28

Performance Statistics

MetricDan SevernJoe Charles
Total UFC Fights41
Experience Gap3-3
Experience ELO1 063972
ELO Change+28-28
💡

What Happened

Dan Severn's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dan Severn for the expected result. Had Joe Charles pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Dan Severn: +19Joe Charles: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricDan SevernJoe Charles
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 049981
ELO Change+19-19
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Dan Severn: +49Joe Charles: -26

Performance Statistics

MetricDan SevernJoe Charles
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round11
Time of Finish1:381:38
Win Type ELO1 188974
ELO Change+49-26
💡

What Happened

Dan Severn earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:38, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Dan Severn: +58Joe Charles: -58

Performance Statistics

MetricDan SevernJoe Charles
Significant Strikes Landed21
Significant Strikes Attempted41
Total Strikes Landed121
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 091942
ELO Change+58-58
💡

What Happened

Dan Severn slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 50.0% vs 100.0% accuracy. Dan Severn capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Dan Severn: +86Joe Charles: -86

Performance Statistics

MetricDan SevernJoe Charles
Takedowns Landed10
Takedowns Attempted10
Ground Control Time----
Ground Strikes Landed20
Ground ELO1 183914
ELO Change+86-86
💡

What Happened

Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Dan Severn: +24Joe Charles: -9

Performance Statistics

MetricDan SevernJoe Charles
Days Since Last Fight112N/A
Activity ELO1 240991
ELO Change+24-9
💡

What Happened

Dan Severn demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Dan Severn capitalized on this activity level, while Joe Charles's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Dan Severn: +20Joe Charles: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricDan SevernJoe Charles
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 060981
ELO Change+20-19
💡

What Happened

Dan Severn started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Joe Charles is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Dan Severn: +19Joe Charles: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricDan SevernJoe Charles
Weight ClassN/AN/A
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 047981
ELO Change+19-19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.