April 6, 1995
Open Weight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dan Severn | Joe Charles |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 063 | 972 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Dan Severn's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dan Severn for the expected result. Had Joe Charles pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Joe Charles |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 049 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Joe Charles |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:38 | 1:38 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 188 | 974 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -26 |
Dan Severn earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:38, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Joe Charles |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 4 | 1 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 12 | 1 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 091 | 942 |
| ELO Change | +58 | -58 |
Dan Severn slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 50.0% vs 100.0% accuracy. Dan Severn capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Joe Charles |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | -- | -- |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 183 | 914 |
| ELO Change | +86 | -86 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Joe Charles |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 240 | 991 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -9 |
Dan Severn demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Dan Severn capitalized on this activity level, while Joe Charles's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Joe Charles |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 060 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -19 |
Dan Severn started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Joe Charles is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Joe Charles |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | N/A | N/A |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 047 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

