December 15, 1995
Open Weight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dan Severn | Paul Varelans |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 111 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Dan Severn's 2-fight experience advantage (8 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dan Severn for the expected result. Had Paul Varelans pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Paul Varelans |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 117 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Paul Varelans |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:01 | 1:01 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 289 | 1 133 |
| ELO Change | +68 | -36 |
Dan Severn earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:01, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Paul Varelans |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 204 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
Virtually no striking took place with only 1 total significant strikes exchanged. Both fighters immediately engaged in grappling, making striking analysis irrelevant to this fight.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Paul Varelans |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | -- | -- |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 282 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Paul Varelans |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 155 | 99 |
| Activity ELO | 1 467 | 1 239 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -10 |
Dan Severn demonstrated solid activity levels with 155 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Dan Severn capitalized on this activity level, while Paul Varelans's 99-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Paul Varelans |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 103 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -18 |
Dan Severn started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Paul Varelans is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Paul Varelans |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | N/A | N/A |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 081 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.