September 21, 2000
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dan Severn | Pedro Rizzo |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 129 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +48 |
Pedro Rizzo overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (6 vs 13 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Dan Severn.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Pedro Rizzo |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 124 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Pedro Rizzo |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:33 | 1:33 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 293 | 1 359 |
| ELO Change | -57 | +136 |
Pedro Rizzo earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:33, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Pedro Rizzo |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 3 | 7 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 186 | 1 370 |
| ELO Change | -147 | +147 |
Virtually no striking took place with only 2 total significant strikes exchanged. Both fighters immediately engaged in grappling, making striking analysis irrelevant to this fight.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Pedro Rizzo |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 221 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Pedro Rizzo |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 1 324 | 105 |
| Activity ELO | 1 779 | 1 276 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +103 |
Pedro Rizzo demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Pedro Rizzo capitalized on this activity level, while Dan Severn's 1324-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Pedro Rizzo |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 129 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +28 |
Pedro Rizzo started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dan Severn is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Pedro Rizzo |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 093 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.