December 15, 1994
UFC 4 Tournament Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dan Severn | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 035 | 1 248 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Royce Gracie's 8-fight experience advantage (11 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Royce Gracie for the expected result. Had Dan Severn pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 030 | 1 258 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +32 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Royce Gracie captured the UFC 4 Tournament Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 15:49 | 15:49 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 139 | 1 504 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +18 |
Royce Gracie earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 15:49, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 7 | 4 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 27 | 80 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 033 | 1 404 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +8 |
Royce Gracie dominated the striking exchanges with 80 vs 27 total strikes, 0.0% vs 57.1% accuracy. Royce Gracie capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | -- | -- |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 097 | 1 409 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 1 | 1 |
| Activity ELO | 1 216 | 1 739 |
| ELO Change | -2 | +23 |
Royce Gracie demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within 1 day since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Royce Gracie capitalized on this activity level, while Dan Severn's 1-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 11 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 040 | 1 367 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +44 |
Royce Gracie extended his incredible 11-fight win streak, earning one of the highest possible momentum bonuses for sustained dominance. This elite-level consistency triggered exponential streak bonuses, while Dan Severn is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dan Severn | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | N/A | N/A |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 028 | 1 187 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.