Dan Stittgen vs Marcelo Guimaraes

July 10, 2012

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

936
(-25)
Dan Stittgen
Winner: Marcelo Guimaraes
Decision - Split
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Dan Stittgen-25
Marcelo Guimaraes+26
1026
(+26)
Marcelo Guimaraes

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Dan Stittgen: -61Marcelo Guimaraes: +61

Performance Statistics

MetricDan StittgenMarcelo Guimaraes
Total UFC Fights21
Experience Gap1-1
Experience ELO9181 061
ELO Change-61+61
💡

What Happened

Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Dan Stittgen: -20Marcelo Guimaraes: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricDan StittgenMarcelo Guimaraes
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9591 020
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Dan Stittgen: -9Marcelo Guimaraes: +9

Performance Statistics

MetricDan StittgenMarcelo Guimaraes
Fight OutcomeDecision - SplitDecision - Split
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO9491 009
ELO Change-9+9
💡

What Happened

The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Marcelo Guimaraes receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Dan Stittgen: -22Marcelo Guimaraes: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricDan StittgenMarcelo Guimaraes
Significant Strikes Landed4963
Significant Strikes Attempted10197
Total Strikes Landed78130
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO8661 022
ELO Change-22+22
💡

What Happened

Marcelo Guimaraes dominated the striking exchanges with 130 vs 78 total strikes, 63 vs 49 significant strikes, 64.9% vs 48.5% accuracy. Marcelo Guimaraes capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Dan Stittgen: -31Marcelo Guimaraes: +31

Performance Statistics

MetricDan StittgenMarcelo Guimaraes
Takedowns Landed10
Takedowns Attempted117
Ground Control Time0:137:35
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO9161 031
ELO Change-31+31
💡

What Happened

Marcelo Guimaraes edged out Dan Stittgen on the ground with 0 takedowns, 7:35 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Dan Stittgen: -20Marcelo Guimaraes: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricDan StittgenMarcelo Guimaraes
Days Since Last Fight158N/A
Activity ELO9591 020
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

Marcelo Guimaraes demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Marcelo Guimaraes capitalized on this activity level, while Dan Stittgen's 158-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Dan Stittgen: -20Marcelo Guimaraes: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricDan StittgenMarcelo Guimaraes
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO9591 022
ELO Change-20+22
💡

What Happened

Marcelo Guimaraes started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dan Stittgen is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Dan Stittgen: -20Marcelo Guimaraes: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricDan StittgenMarcelo Guimaraes
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9591 020
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.