July 10, 2012
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dan Stittgen | Marcelo Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 918 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +61 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Dan Stittgen | Marcelo Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 959 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dan Stittgen | Marcelo Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 949 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Marcelo Guimaraes receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Dan Stittgen | Marcelo Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 49 | 63 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 101 | 97 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 78 | 130 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 866 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Marcelo Guimaraes dominated the striking exchanges with 130 vs 78 total strikes, 63 vs 49 significant strikes, 64.9% vs 48.5% accuracy. Marcelo Guimaraes capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dan Stittgen | Marcelo Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 17 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:13 | 7:35 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 916 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Marcelo Guimaraes edged out Dan Stittgen on the ground with 0 takedowns, 7:35 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Stittgen | Marcelo Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 158 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 959 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Marcelo Guimaraes demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Marcelo Guimaraes capitalized on this activity level, while Dan Stittgen's 158-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dan Stittgen | Marcelo Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 959 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Marcelo Guimaraes started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dan Stittgen is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dan Stittgen | Marcelo Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 959 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

