July 21, 2023
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Daniel Barez | Jafel Filho |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 967 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Daniel Barez | Jafel Filho |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 978 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Daniel Barez | Jafel Filho |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:26 | 3:26 |
| Win Type ELO | 955 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +74 |
Jafel Filho earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:26, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Daniel Barez | Jafel Filho |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 18 | 21 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 30 | 54 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 18 | 23 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 972 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Daniel Barez controlled the striking through superior accuracy (60.0% vs 38.9%), 1 knockdown. However, since Daniel Barez lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Jafel Filho's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Daniel Barez | Jafel Filho |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:12 | 0:55 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 929 | 988 |
| ELO Change | -71 | +71 |
Jafel Filho controlled Daniel Barez on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:55 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Daniel Barez | Jafel Filho |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 978 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +44 |
Jafel Filho demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jafel Filho capitalized on this activity level, while Daniel Barez's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Daniel Barez | Jafel Filho |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 978 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Jafel Filho started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Daniel Barez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Daniel Barez | Jafel Filho |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.