August 16, 2019
UFC Heavyweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Daniel Cormier | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 445 | 1 408 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Stipe Miocic's 2-fight experience advantage (16 vs 14 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Stipe Miocic for the expected result. Had Daniel Cormier pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Daniel Cormier | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 391 | 1 403 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +79 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Stipe Miocic captured the UFC Heavyweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Daniel Cormier | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 4 | 4 |
| Time of Finish | 4:09 | 4:09 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 743 | 1 845 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +93 |
Stipe Miocic gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 4, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Daniel Cormier | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 181 | 123 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 263 | 229 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 230 | 135 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 626 | 1 740 |
| ELO Change | -108 | +108 |
Daniel Cormier controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (230 vs 135 total strikes), significant strike advantage (181 vs 123), superior accuracy (68.8% vs 53.7%). However, since Daniel Cormier lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Stipe Miocic's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Daniel Cormier | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:01 | 1:31 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 21 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 681 | 1 564 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Stipe Miocic landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Daniel Cormier | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 287 | 406 |
| Activity ELO | 1 403 | 1 376 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +23 |
Stipe Miocic demonstrated extended layoff with 406 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Stipe Miocic capitalized on this activity level, while Daniel Cormier's 287-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Daniel Cormier | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 289 | 1 317 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Stipe Miocic started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Daniel Cormier is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Daniel Cormier | Stipe Miocic |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 489 | 1 223 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.