March 3, 2017
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 21 |
| Experience Gap | -14 | 14 |
| Experience ELO | 1 226 | 1 201 |
| ELO Change | +77 | -40 |
Daniel Kelly overcame a 14-fight experience disadvantage (7 vs 21 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Rashad Evans.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 106 | 1 163 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 241 | 1 407 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Daniel Kelly receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 74 | 53 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 193 | 138 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 92 | 62 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 122 | 1 298 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -52 |
Daniel Kelly controlled the striking exchanges with 92 vs 62 total strikes, 74 vs 53 significant strikes. Daniel Kelly capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:11 | 0:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 232 | 1 415 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 98 | 323 |
| Activity ELO | 1 222 | 1 316 |
| ELO Change | +80 | -32 |
Daniel Kelly demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Daniel Kelly capitalized on this activity level, while Rashad Evans's 323-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 134 | 1 176 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -27 |
Daniel Kelly extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rashad Evans is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 102 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.