May 8, 2015
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 061 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 020 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:49 | 0:49 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 078 | 1 280 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +84 |
Sam Alvey secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:49 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 8 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 8 | 13 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 2 | 8 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 954 | 1 225 |
| ELO Change | -93 | +93 |
Sam Alvey controlled the striking exchanges with 8 vs 2 significant strikes, 61.5% vs 25.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Sam Alvey capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 076 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | -63 | +63 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 84 | 76 |
| Activity ELO | 1 057 | 1 172 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +56 |
Sam Alvey demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 76 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Sam Alvey capitalized on this activity level, while Daniel Kelly's 84-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 026 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +28 |
Sam Alvey extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Daniel Kelly is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 020 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.