November 13, 2015
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Steve Montgomery |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 085 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Daniel Kelly's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Daniel Kelly for the expected result. Had Steve Montgomery pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Steve Montgomery |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 039 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Steve Montgomery |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 106 | 930 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Daniel Kelly earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Steve Montgomery |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 63 | 77 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 121 | 191 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 115 | 89 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 976 | 893 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Daniel Kelly edged the striking exchanges with 115 vs 89 total strikes, 63 vs 77 significant strikes, 52.1% vs 40.3% accuracy. Daniel Kelly capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Steve Montgomery |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 13 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:53 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 23 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 142 | 880 |
| ELO Change | +66 | -66 |
Daniel Kelly dominated Steve Montgomery on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 7:53 of control time, 23 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Steve Montgomery |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 190 | 141 |
| Activity ELO | 1 077 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -16 |
Daniel Kelly demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Daniel Kelly capitalized on this activity level, while Steve Montgomery's 141-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Steve Montgomery |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 046 | 961 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -18 |
Daniel Kelly started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Steve Montgomery is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Steve Montgomery |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 039 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

