May 26, 2018
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 114 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +49 |
Tom Breese overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 10 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Daniel Kelly.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 039 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:33 | 3:33 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 131 | 1 283 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +82 |
Tom Breese earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:33, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 28 | 44 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 6 | 23 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 963 | 1 265 |
| ELO Change | -67 | +67 |
Tom Breese controlled the striking exchanges with 23 vs 6 significant strikes, 52.3% vs 21.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Tom Breese capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 092 | 1 138 |
| ELO Change | -65 | +65 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 190 | 722 |
| Activity ELO | 1 145 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +23 |
Tom Breese demonstrated extended layoff with 722 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Tom Breese capitalized on this activity level, while Daniel Kelly's 190-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 067 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +26 |
Tom Breese started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Daniel Kelly is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Daniel Kelly | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 036 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

