Daniel Kelly vs Tom Breese

May 26, 2018

Middleweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1073
(-38)
Daniel Kelly
Winner: Tom Breese
KO/TKO
Round 1 • 3:33

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Daniel Kelly-38
Tom Breese+45
1142
(+45)
Tom Breese

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Daniel Kelly: -37Tom Breese: +49

Performance Statistics

MetricDaniel KellyTom Breese
Total UFC Fights105
Experience Gap5-5
Experience ELO1 1141 143
ELO Change-37+49
💡

What Happened

Tom Breese overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 10 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Daniel Kelly.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Daniel Kelly: -22Tom Breese: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricDaniel KellyTom Breese
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0391 060
ELO Change-22+22
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Daniel Kelly: -38Tom Breese: +82

Performance Statistics

MetricDaniel KellyTom Breese
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round11
Time of Finish3:333:33
Win Type ELO1 1311 283
ELO Change-38+82
💡

What Happened

Tom Breese earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:33, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Daniel Kelly: -67Tom Breese: +67

Performance Statistics

MetricDaniel KellyTom Breese
Significant Strikes Landed623
Significant Strikes Attempted2844
Total Strikes Landed623
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO9631 265
ELO Change-67+67
💡

What Happened

Tom Breese controlled the striking exchanges with 23 vs 6 significant strikes, 52.3% vs 21.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Tom Breese capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Daniel Kelly: -65Tom Breese: +65

Performance Statistics

MetricDaniel KellyTom Breese
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time0:000:01
Ground Strikes Landed01
Ground ELO1 0921 138
ELO Change-65+65
💡

What Happened

Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Daniel Kelly: -26Tom Breese: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricDaniel KellyTom Breese
Days Since Last Fight190722
Activity ELO1 1451 108
ELO Change-26+23
💡

What Happened

Tom Breese demonstrated extended layoff with 722 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Tom Breese capitalized on this activity level, while Daniel Kelly's 190-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Daniel Kelly: -23Tom Breese: +26

Performance Statistics

MetricDaniel KellyTom Breese
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO1 0671 077
ELO Change-23+26
💡

What Happened

Tom Breese started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Daniel Kelly is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Daniel Kelly: -22Tom Breese: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricDaniel KellyTom Breese
Weight ClassMiddleweightMiddleweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0361 060
ELO Change-22+22
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.