April 12, 2013
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Daniel Pineda | Justin Lawrence |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 008 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Daniel Pineda's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Daniel Pineda for the expected result. Had Justin Lawrence pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Daniel Pineda | Justin Lawrence |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 014 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Daniel Pineda | Justin Lawrence |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:35 | 1:35 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 111 | 992 |
| ELO Change | +80 | -42 |
Daniel Pineda earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:35, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Daniel Pineda | Justin Lawrence |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 2 | 2 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 025 | 937 |
| ELO Change | +66 | -66 |
Virtually no striking took place with only 1 total significant strikes exchanged. Both fighters immediately engaged in grappling, making striking analysis irrelevant to this fight.
| Metric | Daniel Pineda | Justin Lawrence |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:19 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 148 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -60 |
Daniel Pineda controlled Justin Lawrence on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 1:19 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Daniel Pineda | Justin Lawrence |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 266 | 245 |
| Activity ELO | 1 089 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -17 |
Daniel Pineda demonstrated standard activity with 266 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Daniel Pineda capitalized on this activity level, while Justin Lawrence's 245-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Daniel Pineda | Justin Lawrence |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 021 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Daniel Pineda started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justin Lawrence is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Daniel Pineda | Justin Lawrence |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 014 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.