March 24, 2023
Featherweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Daniel Pineda | Tucker Lutz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 016 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Daniel Pineda's 8-fight experience advantage (11 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Daniel Pineda for the expected result. Had Tucker Lutz pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Daniel Pineda | Tucker Lutz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 004 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Daniel Pineda | Tucker Lutz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:50 | 2:50 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 165 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -30 |
Daniel Pineda earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:50, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Tucker Lutz was submitted.
| Metric | Daniel Pineda | Tucker Lutz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 24 | 28 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 45 | 78 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 41 | 33 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 078 | 938 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -49 |
Daniel Pineda controlled the striking exchanges with 53.3% vs 35.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Daniel Pineda capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Daniel Pineda | Tucker Lutz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:20 | 1:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 080 | 936 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -52 |
Daniel Pineda controlled Tucker Lutz on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:20 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Daniel Pineda | Tucker Lutz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 638 | 490 |
| Activity ELO | 1 066 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -18 |
Daniel Pineda demonstrated extended layoff with 638 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Daniel Pineda capitalized on this activity level, while Tucker Lutz's 490-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Daniel Pineda | Tucker Lutz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 018 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Daniel Pineda started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tucker Lutz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Daniel Pineda | Tucker Lutz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 004 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

