Daniel Pineda vs Tucker Lutz

March 24, 2023

Featherweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1054
(+34)
Daniel Pineda
Winner: Daniel Pineda
Submission
Round 2 • 2:50

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Daniel Pineda+34
Tucker Lutz-32
974
(-32)
Tucker Lutz

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Daniel Pineda: +38Tucker Lutz: -38

Performance Statistics

MetricDaniel PinedaTucker Lutz
Total UFC Fights113
Experience Gap8-8
Experience ELO1 0161 012
ELO Change+38-38
💡

What Happened

Daniel Pineda's 8-fight experience advantage (11 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Daniel Pineda for the expected result. Had Tucker Lutz pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Daniel Pineda: +22Tucker Lutz: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricDaniel PinedaTucker Lutz
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 004978
ELO Change+22-22
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Daniel Pineda: +46Tucker Lutz: -30

Performance Statistics

MetricDaniel PinedaTucker Lutz
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish2:502:50
Win Type ELO1 165983
ELO Change+46-30
💡

What Happened

Daniel Pineda earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:50, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Tucker Lutz was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Daniel Pineda: +49Tucker Lutz: -49

Performance Statistics

MetricDaniel PinedaTucker Lutz
Significant Strikes Landed2428
Significant Strikes Attempted4578
Total Strikes Landed4133
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 078938
ELO Change+49-49
💡

What Happened

Daniel Pineda controlled the striking exchanges with 53.3% vs 35.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Daniel Pineda capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Daniel Pineda: +52Tucker Lutz: -52

Performance Statistics

MetricDaniel PinedaTucker Lutz
Takedowns Landed10
Takedowns Attempted24
Ground Control Time2:201:27
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 080936
ELO Change+52-52
💡

What Happened

Daniel Pineda controlled Tucker Lutz on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:20 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Daniel Pineda: +16Tucker Lutz: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricDaniel PinedaTucker Lutz
Days Since Last Fight638490
Activity ELO1 066986
ELO Change+16-18
💡

What Happened

Daniel Pineda demonstrated extended layoff with 638 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Daniel Pineda capitalized on this activity level, while Tucker Lutz's 490-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Daniel Pineda: +24Tucker Lutz: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricDaniel PinedaTucker Lutz
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 018982
ELO Change+24-22
💡

What Happened

Daniel Pineda started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tucker Lutz is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Daniel Pineda: +22Tucker Lutz: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricDaniel PinedaTucker Lutz
Weight ClassFeatherweightFeatherweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 004978
ELO Change+22-22
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.