March 20, 2010
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Daniel Roberts | John Howard |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 980 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
John Howard's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding John Howard for the expected result. Had Daniel Roberts pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Daniel Roberts | John Howard |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 983 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Daniel Roberts | John Howard |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:01 | 2:01 |
| Win Type ELO | 970 | 1 169 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +68 |
John Howard earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:01, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Daniel Roberts | John Howard |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 17 | 8 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 21 | 8 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 964 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Daniel Roberts controlled the striking through superior accuracy (41.2% vs 75.0%). However, since Daniel Roberts lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. John Howard's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Daniel Roberts | John Howard |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:55 | 0:49 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 984 | 1 175 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
John Howard did not secure a significant ground advantage against Daniel Roberts on the ground with 1 takedown, 0:49 of control time, 4 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Daniel Roberts | John Howard |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 106 |
| Activity ELO | 984 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +40 |
John Howard demonstrated solid activity levels with 106 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, John Howard capitalized on this activity level, while Daniel Roberts's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Daniel Roberts | John Howard |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 983 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +24 |
John Howard extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Daniel Roberts is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Daniel Roberts | John Howard |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.