June 21, 2024
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 23 |
| Experience Gap | -12 | 12 |
| Experience ELO | 1 185 | 1 237 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Kelvin Gastelum's 12-fight experience advantage (23 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kelvin Gastelum for the expected result. Had Daniel Rodriguez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 059 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 218 | 1 393 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Kelvin Gastelum earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 127 | 112 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 265 | 238 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 132 | 123 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 166 | 1 252 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Daniel Rodriguez controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (127 vs 112). However, since Daniel Rodriguez lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Kelvin Gastelum's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 2:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 949 | 1 212 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Kelvin Gastelum controlled Daniel Rodriguez on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 2:47 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 406 | 203 |
| Activity ELO | 1 286 | 1 277 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +31 |
Kelvin Gastelum demonstrated standard activity with 203 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Kelvin Gastelum capitalized on this activity level, while Daniel Rodriguez's 406-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 102 | 1 154 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Kelvin Gastelum started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Daniel Rodriguez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 057 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.