November 4, 2022
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 28 |
| Experience Gap | -19 | 19 |
| Experience ELO | 1 260 | 1 291 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Neil Magny's 19-fight experience advantage (28 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Neil Magny for the expected result. Had Daniel Rodriguez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 103 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:33 | 3:33 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 295 | 1 462 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +47 |
Neil Magny earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 3:33, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Daniel Rodriguez was submitted.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 66 | 57 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 108 | 109 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 71 | 106 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 329 | 1 369 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Neil Magny controlled the striking exchanges with 106 vs 71 total strikes, 57 vs 66 significant strikes, 52.3% vs 61.1% accuracy. Neil Magny capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:16 | 4:08 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 035 | 1 395 |
| ELO Change | -175 | +175 |
Neil Magny dominated Daniel Rodriguez on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 4:08 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 57 | 134 |
| Activity ELO | 1 343 | 1 483 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +31 |
Neil Magny demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Neil Magny capitalized on this activity level, while Daniel Rodriguez's 57-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 146 | 1 260 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +18 |
Neil Magny started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Daniel Rodriguez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 102 | 1 181 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.