November 20, 2020
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Nicolas Dalby |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 132 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Nicolas Dalby's 3-fight experience advantage (7 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nicolas Dalby for the expected result. Had Daniel Rodriguez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Nicolas Dalby |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 039 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Nicolas Dalby |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 158 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | -64 | +64 |
Nicolas Dalby earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Nicolas Dalby |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 83 | 50 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 199 | 147 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 105 | 58 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 221 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Daniel Rodriguez controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (105 vs 58 total strikes), significant strike advantage (83 vs 50). However, since Daniel Rodriguez lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Nicolas Dalby's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Nicolas Dalby |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:41 | 1:28 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 093 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Nicolas Dalby did not secure a significant ground advantage against Daniel Rodriguez on the ground with 1:28 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Nicolas Dalby |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 92 | 120 |
| Activity ELO | 1 132 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +59 |
Nicolas Dalby demonstrated solid activity levels with 120 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Nicolas Dalby capitalized on this activity level, while Daniel Rodriguez's 92-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Nicolas Dalby |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 053 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +27 |
Nicolas Dalby started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Daniel Rodriguez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Nicolas Dalby |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 039 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.