May 3, 2025
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 20 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 270 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -26 |
Daniel Rodriguez overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (13 vs 20 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Santiago Ponzinibbio.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 102 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:12 | 1:12 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 366 | 1 409 |
| ELO Change | +135 | -68 |
Daniel Rodriguez gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 66 | 49 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 166 | 111 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 70 | 50 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 308 | 1 165 |
| ELO Change | +116 | -116 |
Daniel Rodriguez controlled the striking exchanges with 70 vs 50 total strikes, 66 vs 49 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Daniel Rodriguez capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:07 | 0:44 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 025 | 1 158 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Daniel Rodriguez landed 1 knockdown followed by 1 ground strike. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 203 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 1 351 | 1 212 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -15 |
Daniel Rodriguez demonstrated standard activity with 203 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Daniel Rodriguez capitalized on this activity level, while Santiago Ponzinibbio's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 155 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -24 |
Daniel Rodriguez extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Santiago Ponzinibbio is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Daniel Rodriguez | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 100 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.