May 31, 2019
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Danilo Belluardo | Joel Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 966 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Danilo Belluardo | Joel Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 978 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Danilo Belluardo | Joel Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:22 | 2:22 |
| Win Type ELO | 954 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +95 |
Joel Alvarez gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Danilo Belluardo | Joel Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 19 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 20 | 41 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 56 | 87 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 931 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -69 | +69 |
Joel Alvarez controlled the striking exchanges with 87 vs 56 total strikes, 19 vs 13 significant strikes, 46.3% vs 65.0% accuracy. Joel Alvarez capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Danilo Belluardo | Joel Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:22 | 0:17 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 13 |
| Ground ELO | 975 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Joel Alvarez did not secure a significant ground advantage against Danilo Belluardo on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:17 of control time, 13 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Danilo Belluardo | Joel Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 98 |
| Activity ELO | 978 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +56 |
Joel Alvarez demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Joel Alvarez capitalized on this activity level, while Danilo Belluardo's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Danilo Belluardo | Joel Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 978 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Joel Alvarez started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Danilo Belluardo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Danilo Belluardo | Joel Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.