February 5, 2021
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Danilo Marques | Mike Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 083 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -26 |
Danilo Marques overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 7 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Mike Rodriguez.
| Metric | Danilo Marques | Mike Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 037 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Danilo Marques | Mike Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:52 | 4:52 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 106 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | +75 | -48 |
Danilo Marques earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:52, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Mike Rodriguez was submitted.
| Metric | Danilo Marques | Mike Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 29 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 29 | 24 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 55 | 34 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 051 | 997 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Danilo Marques edged the striking exchanges with 55 vs 34 total strikes, 29 vs 16 significant strikes, 100.0% vs 66.7% accuracy. Danilo Marques capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Danilo Marques | Mike Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:39 | 0:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 27 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 165 | 795 |
| ELO Change | +123 | -123 |
Danilo Marques dominated Mike Rodriguez on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 7:39 of control time, 27 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Danilo Marques | Mike Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 134 | 148 |
| Activity ELO | 1 058 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -20 |
Danilo Marques demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Danilo Marques capitalized on this activity level, while Mike Rodriguez's 148-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Danilo Marques | Mike Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 042 | 970 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -19 |
Danilo Marques extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mike Rodriguez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Danilo Marques | Mike Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 036 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

