March 1, 2025
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Danny Barlow | Sam Patterson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 056 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Danny Barlow | Sam Patterson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 019 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Danny Barlow | Sam Patterson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:10 | 3:10 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 057 | 1 182 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +94 |
Sam Patterson earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:10, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Danny Barlow | Sam Patterson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 15 | 18 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 30 | 34 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 15 | 18 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 007 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -123 | +123 |
Sam Patterson controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. Sam Patterson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Danny Barlow | Sam Patterson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 016 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | -57 | +57 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Danny Barlow | Sam Patterson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 204 | 218 |
| Activity ELO | 1 033 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +29 |
Sam Patterson demonstrated standard activity with 218 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Sam Patterson capitalized on this activity level, while Danny Barlow's 204-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Danny Barlow | Sam Patterson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 025 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +29 |
Sam Patterson extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Danny Barlow is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Danny Barlow | Sam Patterson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 019 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.