December 13, 2013
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Edson Barboza |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 130 | 1 174 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +36 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (9 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Edson Barboza |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 060 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Edson Barboza |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Majority | Decision - Majority |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 177 | 1 270 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
The Decision - Majority showed mixed judging, with Edson Barboza earning reduced bonuses for the unclear victory margin.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Edson Barboza |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 55 | 43 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 125 | 123 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 67 | 43 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 122 | 1 271 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Danny Castillo controlled the striking through superior volume (67 vs 43 total strikes), significant strike advantage (55 vs 43). However, since Danny Castillo lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Edson Barboza's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Edson Barboza |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:04 | 0:53 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 27 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 1 281 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Edson Barboza landed 1 knockdown followed by 8 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Edson Barboza |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 141 | 162 |
| Activity ELO | 1 192 | 1 210 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +42 |
Edson Barboza demonstrated solid activity levels with 162 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Edson Barboza capitalized on this activity level, while Danny Castillo's 141-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Edson Barboza |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 079 | 1 140 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +26 |
Edson Barboza extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Danny Castillo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Edson Barboza |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 059 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.