July 24, 2015
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 20 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 054 | 1 193 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Jim Miller's 7-fight experience advantage (20 vs 13 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jim Miller for the expected result. Had Danny Castillo pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 016 | 1 129 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 142 | 1 314 |
| ELO Change | -6 | +6 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Jim Miller receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 35 | 45 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 103 | 110 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 51 | 61 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 988 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Jim Miller edged the striking exchanges with 45 vs 35 significant strikes. Jim Miller capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:20 | 2:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 140 | 1 170 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Jim Miller edged out Danny Castillo on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:10 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 203 | 98 |
| Activity ELO | 1 150 | 1 336 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +32 |
Jim Miller demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jim Miller capitalized on this activity level, while Danny Castillo's 203-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 038 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +15 |
Jim Miller started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Danny Castillo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 015 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

