May 4, 2012
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Danny Castillo | John Cholish |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 143 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Danny Castillo's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Danny Castillo for the expected result. Had John Cholish pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | John Cholish |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 064 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | John Cholish |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 154 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Danny Castillo earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | John Cholish |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 52 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 136 | 84 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 62 | 31 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 171 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Danny Castillo controlled the striking exchanges with 62 vs 31 total strikes, 52 vs 29 significant strikes. Danny Castillo capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | John Cholish |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:55 | 0:51 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 260 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Danny Castillo controlled John Cholish on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:55 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | John Cholish |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 127 | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 1 190 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -13 |
Danny Castillo demonstrated solid activity levels with 127 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Danny Castillo capitalized on this activity level, while John Cholish's 147-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | John Cholish |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 079 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -19 |
Danny Castillo extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. John Cholish is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | John Cholish |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 063 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.