October 4, 2012
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 117 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +39 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (6 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 041 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:06 | 1:06 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 108 | 1 212 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +95 |
Michael Johnson gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 17 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 35 | 36 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 29 | 18 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 082 | 1 240 |
| ELO Change | -89 | +89 |
Danny Castillo controlled the striking through 1 knockdown. However, since Danny Castillo lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Michael Johnson's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:02 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 12 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 226 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Michael Johnson landed 1 knockdown followed by 4 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 153 | 153 |
| Activity ELO | 1 164 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +46 |
Michael Johnson demonstrated solid activity levels with 153 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Michael Johnson capitalized on this activity level, while Danny Castillo's 153-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 055 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +31 |
Michael Johnson extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Danny Castillo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 040 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.