Danny Castillo vs Nik Lentz

December 18, 2015

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1050
(-18)
Danny Castillo
Winner: Nik Lentz
Decision - Split
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Danny Castillo-18
Nik Lentz+19
1164
(+19)
Nik Lentz

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Danny Castillo: -26Nik Lentz: +26

Performance Statistics

MetricDanny CastilloNik Lentz
Total UFC Fights1416
Experience Gap-22
Experience ELO1 0281 146
ELO Change-26+26
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What Happened

Nik Lentz's 2-fight experience advantage (16 vs 14 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nik Lentz for the expected result. Had Danny Castillo pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Danny Castillo: -17Nik Lentz: +17

Performance Statistics

MetricDanny CastilloNik Lentz
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9991 093
ELO Change-17+17
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Danny Castillo: -9Nik Lentz: +9

Performance Statistics

MetricDanny CastilloNik Lentz
Fight OutcomeDecision - SplitDecision - Split
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 1331 202
ELO Change-9+9
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What Happened

The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Nik Lentz receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Danny Castillo: -14Nik Lentz: +14

Performance Statistics

MetricDanny CastilloNik Lentz
Significant Strikes Landed5759
Significant Strikes Attempted124132
Total Strikes Landed6072
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO9741 160
ELO Change-14+14
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What Happened

Nik Lentz slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Nik Lentz capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Danny Castillo: -29Nik Lentz: +29

Performance Statistics

MetricDanny CastilloNik Lentz
Takedowns Landed23
Takedowns Attempted66
Ground Control Time3:341:34
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 1111 263
ELO Change-29+29
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What Happened

Nik Lentz edged out Danny Castillo on the ground with 3 vs 2 takedowns, 1:34 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Danny Castillo: -17Nik Lentz: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricDanny CastilloNik Lentz
Days Since Last Fight148204
Activity ELO1 1331 231
ELO Change-17+22
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What Happened

Nik Lentz demonstrated standard activity with 204 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Nik Lentz capitalized on this activity level, while Danny Castillo's 148-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Danny Castillo: -17Nik Lentz: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricDanny CastilloNik Lentz
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO1 0211 123
ELO Change-17+19
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What Happened

Nik Lentz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Danny Castillo is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Danny Castillo: -17Nik Lentz: +17

Performance Statistics

MetricDanny CastilloNik Lentz
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9981 092
ELO Change-17+17
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.