December 18, 2015
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Nik Lentz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 028 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Nik Lentz's 2-fight experience advantage (16 vs 14 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nik Lentz for the expected result. Had Danny Castillo pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Nik Lentz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 999 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Nik Lentz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 133 | 1 202 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Nik Lentz receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Nik Lentz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 57 | 59 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 124 | 132 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 60 | 72 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 974 | 1 160 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
Nik Lentz slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Nik Lentz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Nik Lentz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:34 | 1:34 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 111 | 1 263 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Nik Lentz edged out Danny Castillo on the ground with 3 vs 2 takedowns, 1:34 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Nik Lentz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 148 | 204 |
| Activity ELO | 1 133 | 1 231 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +22 |
Nik Lentz demonstrated standard activity with 204 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Nik Lentz capitalized on this activity level, while Danny Castillo's 148-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Nik Lentz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 021 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +19 |
Nik Lentz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Danny Castillo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Nik Lentz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 998 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

