February 15, 2013
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Paul Sass |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 147 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Danny Castillo's 2-fight experience advantage (7 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Danny Castillo for the expected result. Had Paul Sass pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Paul Sass |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 062 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Paul Sass |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 158 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -50 |
Danny Castillo earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Paul Sass |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 38 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 67 | 23 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 67 | 23 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 142 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -60 |
Danny Castillo controlled the striking exchanges with 67 vs 23 total strikes, 38 vs 4 significant strikes, 56.7% vs 17.4% accuracy. Danny Castillo capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Paul Sass |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 12:15 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 37 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 290 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | +64 | -64 |
Danny Castillo dominated Paul Sass on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 12:15 of control time, 37 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Paul Sass |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 135 | 141 |
| Activity ELO | 1 194 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -15 |
Danny Castillo demonstrated solid activity levels with 135 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Danny Castillo capitalized on this activity level, while Paul Sass's 141-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Paul Sass |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 078 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Danny Castillo started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Paul Sass is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Paul Sass |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 061 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.