November 18, 2011
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Shamar Bailey |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 096 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -17 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Shamar Bailey |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 024 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Shamar Bailey |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:52 | 4:52 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 108 | 971 |
| ELO Change | +88 | -41 |
Danny Castillo earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:52, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Shamar Bailey |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 34 | 4 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 45 | 21 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 121 | 919 |
| ELO Change | +78 | -78 |
Danny Castillo controlled the striking exchanges with 45 vs 21 total strikes, 22 vs 3 significant strikes, 64.7% vs 75.0% accuracy. Danny Castillo capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Shamar Bailey |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:36 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 20 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 165 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +79 | -79 |
Danny Castillo controlled Shamar Bailey on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 4:36 of control time, 20 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Shamar Bailey |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 98 | 64 |
| Activity ELO | 1 067 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -20 |
Danny Castillo demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Danny Castillo capitalized on this activity level, while Shamar Bailey's 64-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Shamar Bailey |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 031 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Danny Castillo started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Shamar Bailey is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Shamar Bailey |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 023 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.