July 26, 2013
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 164 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Danny Castillo's 4-fight experience advantage (8 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Danny Castillo for the expected result. Had Tim Means pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 080 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 191 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Danny Castillo earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 38 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 79 | 93 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 59 | 126 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 165 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Tim Means controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (126 vs 59 total strikes), significant strike advantage (38 vs 25). However, since Tim Means lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Danny Castillo's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:36 | 0:41 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 313 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Danny Castillo controlled Tim Means on the ground with 6 vs 0 takedowns, 5:36 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 161 | 98 |
| Activity ELO | 1 216 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -13 |
Danny Castillo demonstrated solid activity levels with 161 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Danny Castillo capitalized on this activity level, while Tim Means's 98-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 099 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -18 |
Danny Castillo extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tim Means is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 079 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.