August 29, 2014
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 112 | 1 173 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +41 |
Tony Ferguson overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (7 vs 11 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Danny Castillo.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 055 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 212 | 1 238 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Tony Ferguson receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 23 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 105 | 80 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 30 | 71 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 123 | 1 217 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Tony Ferguson controlled the striking exchanges with 71 vs 30 total strikes. Tony Ferguson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 9:29 | 0:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 261 | 1 226 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Tony Ferguson did not secure a significant ground advantage against Danny Castillo on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1 ground strike, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 98 |
| Activity ELO | 1 194 | 1 220 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +62 |
Tony Ferguson demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tony Ferguson capitalized on this activity level, while Danny Castillo's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 076 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +27 |
Tony Ferguson extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Danny Castillo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Danny Castillo | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 054 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.