June 3, 2011
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Danny Downes | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -11 | 11 |
| Experience ELO | 975 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Jeremy Stephens's 11-fight experience advantage (12 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jeremy Stephens for the expected result. Had Danny Downes pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Danny Downes | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Danny Downes | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 982 | 1 238 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Jeremy Stephens earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Danny Downes | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 32 | 55 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 88 | 88 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 48 | 87 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 989 | 1 303 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
Jeremy Stephens controlled the striking exchanges with 87 vs 48 total strikes, 55 vs 32 significant strikes, 62.5% vs 36.4% accuracy. Jeremy Stephens capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Danny Downes | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:28 | 8:16 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 913 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | -87 | +87 |
Jeremy Stephens dominated Danny Downes on the ground with 6 vs 0 takedowns, 8:16 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Danny Downes | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 154 |
| Activity ELO | 988 | 1 184 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +21 |
Jeremy Stephens demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jeremy Stephens capitalized on this activity level, while Danny Downes's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Danny Downes | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 982 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +21 |
Jeremy Stephens extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Danny Downes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Danny Downes | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

